With a period of heightened economic uncertainty on the horizon, security teams globally are finding themselves simultaneously facing both short- and long-term uncertainty.
To put it simply, global financial stability is fragile. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook has warned that instability is clobbering the global economy – with global growth facing a “new and major test”. Declining container shipments on key trade routes, particularly along the US East Coast, coupled with downgraded economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone in both 2025 and 2026, further underscore the vulnerability.
Of course, these forecasts and reforecasts impact organisations strategies and industries in different ways. Yet, for the vast majority of security teams, these economic indicators represent more than mere data points – they serve as critical early warnings of potential security threats. Directly impacting organisational resilience, and more specifically the safety of people and critical assets.
Financial Strain and Rising Security Threats
Historical evidence consistently demonstrates a direct correlation between economic downturns and increased security threats. For example, during Greece’s debt crisis, burglaries and thefts surged by 33%, and robberies increased by 41% within two years. The ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the UK has likewise seen security analysts predict annual increases of up to 25% in shoplifting and related criminal activities.
As a result, proactive security teams need to view economic trends not as abstract concepts, but as practical signals that inform their strategies. And on the same vein, economic pressures don’t only drive external threat vectors; they also amplify insider threats. Financial stress, layoffs, and job insecurity frequently lead to higher internal fraud, sabotage, or collaboration with external threat actors, creating severe vulnerabilities.
Thus, leaders need to recognise economic downturns as critical precursors to potential security crises and proactively adjust their strategies. Rather than simply reacting after incidents occur.
Simultaneously however, the reality is that financial downturn also directly impacts the security function. As most security leaders have already experienced in recent years – budgets are reviewed, headcount can be put under pressure, and proactive investments can quickly become nice to haves.
Therein lies the problem. Reducing security budgets during economic downturns regularly results in businesses becoming exposed precisely when security threats escalate. For instance, previous austerity measures in the UK resulted in the loss of 20,000 police officers, weakening external security and forcing companies to depend increasingly on internal resources during critical periods.
Security budgets, therefore, must be viewed as strategic investments essential for preserving business continuity and safeguarding future profitability. In particular when economic uncertainty is on the horizon. But we can’t be under the illusion that the security team is the only function relevant in this scenario – and the reality is that financial pressures often win.
Practical Recommendations for Security Teams
So how do leaders balance resource limitations while maintaining proactive security postures?
To navigate this effectively, teams need to focus on two key areas: improving insights through targeted monitoring, and ensuring the right governance frameworks are in place to drive robust proactive oversight. Both areas allow security teams to maximize their preparedness without diverting substantial resources from immediate priorities.
Let’s look at both in turn:
Embed Leading Indicators Tied to Economic Uncertainty
Embedding leading economic indicators into your team’s monitoring systems enhances the predictive insights the security function can provide the wider organisation when it’s needed most. To achieve an efficient and targeted approach, security teams need to maintain a robust global view of high-risk markets and asset criticality, enabling focused resource allocation based on both inherent exposure and risk. Set up structured leading indicators in markets facing heightened economic pressure, using your existing intel provider(s) and OSINT data feeds:
- Local Crime and Unemployment Rates: Prioritize tracking unemployment rates and crime data specifically within your highest-risk regions to proactively identify areas most likely to experience increased threat activity.
- Employee Sentiment and Turnover Rates: By monitoring employee grievances and turnover rates, security teams can efficiently detect heightened internal threats early, allowing targeted interventions to reduce risks without excessive resource allocation.
- Supplier Stability: Increase the rate of targeted financial and operational stress tests on critical suppliers, prioritizing those within high-risk markets or who are essential to operational continuity, allowing pre-emptive management of potential disruptions.
- Supplier Stability: Increase the rate of targeted financial and operational stress tests on critical suppliers, prioritizing those within high-risk markets or who are essential to operational continuity, allowing pre-emptive management of potential disruptions.
Ensure You Have the Right Frameworks in Place
Economic instability reinforces the necessity of a holistic, data-driven approach to security risk management. Incorporating economic indicators alongside traditional risk data provides deeper insights, enabling security teams to make informed, proactive decisions rather than reactive responses:
- Explicitly integrate severe economic downturn scenarios into your Business Impact Analysis (BIA). Evaluate not only operational disruptions but also anticipate the direct and indirect security impacts that prolonged financial instability could bring—such as reduced workforce reliability, compromised access to critical supplies, or increased internal threats.
- Consider a targeted enhancement of your supply chain security. Prioritize diversification and redundancy, ensuring alternative suppliers or contingency plans exist for critical assets or materials. Regularly perform financial and operational stress tests, particularly focusing on suppliers operating within economically volatile regions. Proactive supplier management protects operational continuity and reduces vulnerabilities before they become crises.
- And lastly, adopt robust governance frameworks like ISO 31000 and ASIS’s Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) model. These standards encourage embedding economic indicators directly into the broader risk assessment and strategic planning processes – facilitating more nuanced and comprehensive risk evaluations aligned closely with the organization’s strategic objectives and resource allocation.
Ultimately, the key takeaway for security leaders navigating the current phase of economic uncertainty is straightforward: Investing strategically in proactive indicators and data-informed frameworks is not just best practice – it’s essential for maintaining resilience and safeguarding your organization’s long-term stability.
About Us: Human Risks
Human Risks is a leading end-to-end security risk management platform built to enable teams to make faster, smarter decisions – including around complex issues such as economic uncertainty. Designed with the modern security team in mind, Human Risks integrates eight core modules, integrations with leading intel providers and tailored industry solutions to streamline workflows across both local and global asset footprints.
Interested in learning more? Connect with the team to see how organisations are already using Human Risks to improve the way they manage security. And drive robust organisational resilience.
